Long Read
The Strait of Hormuz opened for twelve hours on Friday. By Saturday morning Iran had closed it again. For an unhedged carrier still in post-bankruptcy recovery, every additional week of this costs money it cannot spare.
Analysis
Jet fuel prices remain double their pre-war levels. IATA warns of European cancellations by end of May regardless. The carriers that survive the rest of 2026 intact are already visible — and so are the ones that may not.
Analysis
Norse Atlantic entered 2026 with its first credible profit forecast. Eleven weeks later, it was asking shareholders for $110 million. The fuel crisis has found its most exposed victim.
Analysis
FlyAtlantic has been planning to launch transatlantic flights from Belfast since 2022. The launch date has moved three times. The A321XLR changes the economics of the model in ways that previous attempts could not access. Whether the airline can actually get off the ground is a different question.
News
Scott Kirby pitched a United-American merger to Trump in February. A combined carrier would control 30% of US domestic traffic. The antitrust obstacles are substantial.
Analysis
British Airways holds 51% of all slots at Heathrow, inherited over fifty years and allocated free of charge by a government regulator. The standard airline valuation framework was not built for a company whose most valuable assets cannot be replicated at any price.
Analysis
ACI Europe has warned of systemic shortages within three weeks. The final Hormuz-sourced cargoes arrived at European ports around 10 April. What the crisis has exposed is not just a supply problem — it is a governance failure that nobody in Brussels saw coming because nobody was watching.
Analysis
Delta's American Express partnership generates $8 billion annually. IAG Loyalty is valued at $10.3 billion — double what it was worth in 2020. A forensic look at how frequent flyer miles became the most valuable asset in commercial aviation, and why the market still hasn't priced it correctly.
Analysis
The Iran conflict has sorted the airline sector into two groups that were always structurally different but were previously priced as if they were the same. An independent analysis of which carriers have earned their current valuations — and which have not.
Analysis
Fuel hedging is the financial instrument that separates the airlines absorbing the current crisis from those drowning in it. Here is how it works, why most US carriers abandoned it, and what its structural limits are — including the flaw the Iran war made visible.
News
Delta beat on revenue and earnings in the first quarter. It also withdrew its full year guidance entirely. The refinery offset is real. The fuel crisis is now fully on the income statement; and Delta's results represent the ceiling for what US airlines can deliver in this environment.
Analysis
Short positions on Wizz Air have risen from 9% to 16% since the Iran war began — the highest level in ten years. Hedge funds are telling you where they think the fuel crisis does the most structural damage among listed European carriers.