The Insider Brief — Monday 13 April 2026

Good morning. The ceasefire is effectively over.

JD Vance announced late Sunday that US-Iran talks in Islamabad had failed. Within hours, Trump declared a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, stating the US Navy would interdict any vessel that had paid transit tolls to Iran. Iran warned that military vessels approaching the strait would receive a "strong response." The two-week ceasefire announced on 7 April has lasted less than a week in any meaningful operational sense — Iran had been charging tolls of over $1 million per ship throughout the supposed truce period.

For aviation the implications are direct. The relief rally in airline stocks on 8 April — DAL up 3.75%, UAL up 7.84% — is already unwinding. Jet fuel, which briefly fell toward $94 per barrel on ceasefire optimism, faces renewed upward pressure. ACI Europe's warning of systemic shortages within three weeks, sent to the European Commission on 9 April, now looks premature. The final Hormuz-sourced cargoes arrived at European ports around 10 April; the supply pipeline is running thin precisely as the political situation deteriorates.

Four stories to watch today

Lufthansa pilots are on strike — today and tomorrow. Vereinigung Cockpit called a 48-hour walkout from midnight Sunday covering mainline Lufthansa, Lufthansa Cargo and CityLine, with Eurowings pilots joining for Monday only. Lufthansa expects 80% of Frankfurt and Munich departures to be cancelled across the two days, affecting more than 50,000 passengers. The walkout is the third set of strikes at the carrier in under a month — a cabin crew strike grounded approximately 580 Frankfurt flights on 10 April — and follows the union's claim that management "showed no discernible willingness to find a solution" on pensions. No resolution is in sight before summer.

Airbus delivered 60 aircraft to 38 customers in March, bringing the Q1 2026 total to 114 — down from 136 in Q1 2025. The manufacturer booked 331 gross orders in the month, including AerCap's commitment for 100 A320neo family aircraft and Atlas Air's order for 20 A350F freighters — making Atlas the largest A350F customer to date. The backlog now stands at 9,037 aircraft, representing approximately 10.4 years of production at the current 870-delivery annual target. The delivery shortfall relative to 2025 reflects ongoing supply chain constraints, particularly engine availability on the A320neo family.

Qatar Airways is operating 103 flights ex-Doha this morning — roughly 50% of its pre-war schedule, against 60-70% at Emirates and Etihad. The carrier is targeting 120 destinations by mid-June. Those expansion plans look considerably less certain following last night's blockade announcement.

China's state-owned airlines have emerged as unexpected losers from the Iran conflict, Bloomberg reported at the weekend. Rising fuel costs are outweighing gains from increased international traffic as Asian carriers face the steepest physical supply constraints globally.

One number

26th — Qatar Airways' current ranking by international capacity, down from 13th before the war began. The single figure captures what six weeks of conflict has done to one of aviation's most ambitious networks.

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