Ryanair posts record profit but withholds guidance

Ryanair reported a record profit after tax of $2.63bn (2.26bn euros) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, a 40 per cent increase on the prior year. The carrier declined to issue any financial guidance for the year ahead, citing zero visibility on second-half pricing and significant uncertainty over fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict.

Revenue rose 11 per cent to $18.0bn (15.54bn euros), with fares up 10 per cent year on year, recovering the 7 per cent fare decline recorded in FY25. Operating costs rose 6 per cent, holding unit cost growth to 1 per cent.

Passenger numbers grew 4 per cent to a record 208.4 million. Revenue per passenger rose 7 per cent, a result of the fare recovery rather than ancillary growth.

The group has hedged approximately 80 per cent of its FY27 fuel requirements at approximately $67 per barrel, locked through to April 2027. The unhedged 20 per cent is fully exposed to spot prices, which have spiked to over $150 per barrel; CFO Neil Sorahan told CNBC that sustained high prices "puts Ryanair in a particularly strong position" relative to competitors carrying larger unhedged exposures.

Sorahan said Ryanair has prepared contingency plans for severe disruption scenarios but ruled out cancellations, telling CNBC: "Do we have plans for some kind of Armageddon situation? Of course we do." He added the carrier was not overly concerned about supply as Europe's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz was declining, with crude now flowing from the United States, Venezuela and Brazil.

Ryanair said travel demand remains robust overall but acknowledged customers are booking closer to departure than in prior years, citing economic uncertainty. Summer fares are now expected to land broadly in line with last year rather than the increase previously projected, with Citi analysts noting the carrier has had to lower prices to fill early summer capacity.

O'Leary told CNBC in April that if jet fuel remains at $150 per barrel through the summer, "you will see European airlines fail, and that, in the medium term, would probably be good for Ryanair's business." Sorahan repeated the view on Monday, warning that some weaker carriers already struggling before the war could go under before the winter.

As of 31 March 2026, Ryanair had received all 210 Boeing 737 MAX 8200 aircraft from its first order tranche, with a further 150 firm MAX 10 orders due between 2027 and 2034. Ryanair expects traffic to grow to approximately 216 million passengers in FY27 as additional aircraft enter service, though O'Leary noted Boeing and Airbus remain well behind on delivery commitments across the industry.

Shares fell 2.7 per cent at the open on Monday before recovering to close up 6 per cent, as investors weighed the record profit against the absence of forward guidance. The stock remains down approximately 22 per cent year to date as fuel cost uncertainty has weighed on the aviation sector.