Analysis
ACI Europe has warned of systemic shortages within three weeks. The final Hormuz-sourced cargoes arrived at European ports around 10 April. What the crisis has exposed is not just a supply problem — it is a governance failure that nobody in Brussels saw coming because nobody was watching.
Analysis
Delta's American Express partnership generates $8 billion annually. IAG Loyalty is valued at $10.3 billion — double what it was worth in 2020. A forensic look at how frequent flyer miles became the most valuable asset in commercial aviation, and why the market still hasn't priced it correctly.
Analysis
The Iran conflict has sorted the airline sector into two groups that were always structurally different but were previously priced as if they were the same. An independent analysis of which carriers have earned their current valuations — and which have not.
Analysis
Fuel hedging is the financial instrument that separates the airlines absorbing the current crisis from those drowning in it. Here is how it works, why most US carriers abandoned it, and what its structural limits are — including the flaw the Iran war made visible.
News
Delta beat on revenue and earnings in the first quarter. It also withdrew its full year guidance entirely. The refinery offset is real. The fuel crisis is now fully on the income statement; and Delta's results represent the ceiling for what US airlines can deliver in this environment.
Analysis
Short positions on Wizz Air have risen from 9% to 16% since the Iran war began — the highest level in ten years. Hedge funds are telling you where they think the fuel crisis does the most structural damage among listed European carriers.
Analysis
Delta reports first quarter earnings on Wednesday at 6.30am Eastern. The headline revenue and EPS figures will receive the usual attention.
News
Ryanair entered the Iran war with 84% of its fuel hedged at $77 per barrel. Spot prices are now above $190. The competitive advantage is real. O'Leary's warning this week about May supply disruptions, however, suggests the crisis is moving into territory that no hedging contract reaches.
Analysis
Jet fuel has more than doubled since February. European carriers entered the crisis better hedged than most. But a structural flaw in how airlines hedge is leaving many more exposed than they realise — and Delta's earnings on April 9 will be the first real test of who is protected and who is not.