American now forecasts a 2026 loss of up to $1.60 a share

American Airlines now expects an adjusted loss of $1.00–$1.60 a share for 2026, it said on October 22, having forecast anything from a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit in July and earnings of $1.70–$2.70 at the start of the year.

The cut came despite third quarter revenue of $16.3bn, a record that was up 19.3 per cent and above the top of American's own forecast, which chief executive Robert Isom called "the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career". Fuel absorbed about three quarters of that increase, with the bill rising $1.9bn, or 67.5 per cent, to $4.6bn at an average of $3.85 a gallon, leaving an adjusted loss of $182mn, or $0.28 a share.

American expects the fourth quarter to be worse, forecasting an adjusted loss of $0.50–$1.10 a share on fuel at about $4.70 a gallon and a fuel headwind of more than $7bn for the full year. United expects to pay slightly more, at about $4.80, yet still forecasts a fourth quarter profit, while Delta Air Lines expects $4.25 with the help of its own refinery.

The weakness does not lie in revenue, where the premium strategy is working: premium revenue rose 22.9 per cent and revenue from managed corporate accounts 27.6 per cent, and premium cabins already produce about half of ticket revenue from roughly 30 per cent of seats. Unit costs excluding fuel rose 3 per cent in the quarter, which American says was the best among the large network carriers, and it expects efficiency savings to reach an annual rate of nearly $1bn by the end of the year.

American is nonetheless growing faster than its rivals, with capacity up 5.5–6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter against United's 1.3 per cent in the third, and it will slow growth in 2027 because of fuel prices without yet saying by how much. That growth rests on a balance sheet with total debt of $36.4bn and net debt of $28.1bn at September 30, down from $35.1bn in 2023, and available liquidity of $11.8bn.

Paying down debt while losing money limits how far American can lean on its premium strategy to close the gap with United and Delta, and Isom said the company's focus "remains on restoring profitability".

What to watch: how far American slows 2027 growth when it gives figures in January, and whether fuel prices allow it to reach the better end of its fourth quarter range.